Our track record
Every number here comes from real, settled single bets — picked before kickoff and judged on the final result. We publish all of it, wins and losses. How the model works →
break-even 65.2%
net $-165.40
155 priced · 68% of tips matched · median last move 89 min before kickoff
The median closing price last moved more than an hour before kickoff — late lineup repricing may not be captured.
We are still proving this edge
We only call a strategy "proven" once the 95% Wilson lower bound on win rate (56.7%) clears break-even (65.2%) over a large enough sample. Status: Wilson LB(WR) 56.7% does not clear break-even 65.2%. Until then we hold automated stakes flat and keep building the record in public.
Performance by market
| Market | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | Wilson LB | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 76 | 59.2% | 1.73 | 48.0% / 57.9% | Building track record |
| Goals O/U | 2 | 100.0% | 1.93 | 34.2% / 51.8% | Building track record |
| Both teams to score | 3 | 0.0% | 2.18 | 0.0% / 45.8% | Building track record |
| Double chance | 174 | 64.9% | 1.43 | 57.6% / 69.7% | Building track record |
Performance by side
| Side | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | ROI | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Ottawa or Draw | 4 | 50.0% | 1.61 | -28.5% | 15.0% |
| Lillestrom or Draw | 4 | 50.0% | 1.43 | -36.5% | 15.0% |
| Vancouver FC or Draw | 4 | 100.0% | 1.44 | +44.0% | 51.0% |
| New York City FC or Draw | 4 | 25.0% | 1.40 | -63.3% | 4.6% |
| Viking | 4 | 100.0% | 1.38 | +37.8% | 51.0% |
| Motherwell or Draw | 4 | 75.0% | 1.34 | +2.5% | 30.1% |
| Southampton or Draw | 4 | 50.0% | 1.39 | -29.8% | 15.0% |
| Ham-Kam or Draw | 3 | 66.7% | 1.45 | -12.3% | 20.8% |
| Brann or Draw | 3 | 33.3% | 1.28 | -56.0% | 6.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 66.7% | 1.24 | -17.3% | 20.8% |
| Heerenveen or Draw | 3 | 66.7% | 1.40 | +0.0% | 20.8% |
| Crewe or Draw | 3 | 100.0% | 1.49 | +49.3% | 43.8% |
| Nashville SC or Draw | 3 | 100.0% | 1.42 | +42.3% | 43.8% |
| Charlotte or Draw | 3 | 66.7% | 1.37 | -10.3% | 20.8% |
| Nashville SC | 3 | 100.0% | 1.81 | +81.0% | 43.8% |
| York United or Draw | 3 | 66.7% | 1.52 | +5.7% | 20.8% |
| BTTS No | 2 | 0.0% | 2.30 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Inter Miami or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.39 | +38.5% | 34.2% |
| Colorado Rapids or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.29 | +28.5% | 34.2% |
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 34.2% |
| Sandefjord or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.35 | -33.5% | 9.5% |
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.26 | -46.5% | 9.5% |
| New England Revolution or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.46 | -28.0% | 9.5% |
| GIL Vicente | 2 | 100.0% | 1.88 | +88.0% | 34.2% |
| Kashima | 2 | 50.0% | 1.84 | -10.0% | 9.5% |
| Vissel Kobe | 2 | 50.0% | 2.00 | -16.0% | 9.5% |
| Mansfield Town or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.50 | +50.0% | 34.2% |
| Atlanta United FC or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.30 | +29.5% | 34.2% |
| Sevilla | 2 | 100.0% | 2.35 | +135.0% | 34.2% |
| Los Angeles FC or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.46 | -30.0% | 9.5% |
| Real Betis | 2 | 100.0% | 1.87 | +87.0% | 34.2% |
| Millwall or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.41 | -27.5% | 9.5% |
| Fleetwood Town | 2 | 50.0% | 2.05 | -2.5% | 9.5% |
| Nottingham Forest or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.44 | -26.5% | 9.5% |
| Brentford or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.58 | +58.0% | 34.2% |
| Las Palmas or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.34 | +33.5% | 34.2% |
| Eibar or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.40 | +40.0% | 34.2% |
| Osasuna | 2 | 0.0% | 2.02 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayern München | 2 | 50.0% | 1.27 | -34.5% | 9.5% |
| Excelsior or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.46 | -25.0% | 9.5% |
| Seattle Sounders or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.52 | +51.5% | 34.2% |
| San Diego or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.42 | -35.5% | 9.5% |
| Paris FC or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.44 | +44.0% | 34.2% |
| Nacional or Draw | 2 | 0.0% | 1.44 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Peterborough or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.48 | -25.0% | 9.5% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.35 | +35.0% | 34.2% |
| Machida Zelvia or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.37 | -36.0% | 9.5% |
| Luton or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.44 | -24.0% | 9.5% |
| Le Havre or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.47 | -27.5% | 9.5% |
| Hamburger SV or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.60 | -20.0% | 9.5% |
| Derby or Draw | 2 | 0.0% | 1.63 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Auxerre or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.55 | +55.0% | 34.2% |
| Castellón | 2 | 50.0% | 1.81 | +17.5% | 9.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.76 | +76.0% | 20.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.10 | +110.0% | 20.7% |
| CF Montreal or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.45 | +45.0% | 20.7% |
| Kristiansund BK or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.67 | +67.0% | 20.7% |
| Lillestrom | 1 | 100.0% | 1.74 | +74.0% | 20.7% |
| Start or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.67 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| BTTS Yes | 1 | 0.0% | 1.95 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1 | 0.0% | 1.85 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.30 | +30.0% | 20.7% |
| Falkirk or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.33 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Falkirk | 1 | 0.0% | 2.06 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Inter Miami | 1 | 0.0% | 1.70 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Cincinnati or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.35 | +35.0% | 20.7% |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1 | 100.0% | 1.96 | +96.0% | 20.7% |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1 | 0.0% | 2.12 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Tokyo or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.39 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| V-varen Nagasaki or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.57 | +57.0% | 20.7% |
| Motherwell | 1 | 0.0% | 1.81 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| GIL Vicente or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.28 | +28.0% | 20.7% |
| Telstar or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.45 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Vancouver FC | 1 | 0.0% | 1.65 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Gamba Osaka or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.48 | +48.0% | 20.7% |
| Reading or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.70 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Plymouth | 1 | 0.0% | 2.35 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Mansfield Town | 1 | 100.0% | 2.13 | +113.0% | 20.7% |
| Huddersfield | 1 | 100.0% | 1.68 | +68.0% | 20.7% |
| Huddersfield or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.19 | +19.0% | 20.7% |
| Orlando City SC or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.45 | +45.0% | 20.7% |
| Southampton | 1 | 0.0% | 2.15 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Utrecht or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.62 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Burgos or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.40 | +40.0% | 20.7% |
| Forge or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.21 | +21.0% | 20.7% |
| DC United or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.50 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 100.0% | 1.70 | +70.0% | 20.7% |
| Real Betis or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.32 | +32.0% | 20.7% |
| Wycombe or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 20.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0.0% | 2.37 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Everton or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.37 | +37.0% | 20.7% |
| Fleetwood Town or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.32 | +32.0% | 20.7% |
| Estoril | 1 | 0.0% | 2.01 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Las Palmas | 1 | 100.0% | 2.27 | +127.0% | 20.7% |
| Dundee Utd or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.37 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| HFX Wanderers FC or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.75 | +75.0% | 20.7% |
| Heerenveen | 1 | 0.0% | 1.65 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Machida Zelvia | 1 | 100.0% | 1.88 | +88.0% | 20.7% |
| Manchester City | 1 | 100.0% | 1.52 | +52.0% | 20.7% |
| Manchester City or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.15 | +15.0% | 20.7% |
| Cesena or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.45 | +45.0% | 20.7% |
| Paris Saint Germain or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.18 | +18.0% | 20.7% |
| Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.0% | 2.12 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Barcelona or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.09 | +9.0% | 20.7% |
| Nagoya Grampus or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 20.7% |
| Barnet | 1 | 0.0% | 1.65 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Blackburn or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.44 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.52 | +52.0% | 20.7% |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.50 | +50.0% | 20.7% |
| SC Freiburg | 1 | 100.0% | 2.10 | +110.0% | 20.7% |
| Tromso | 1 | 0.0% | 1.67 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Monaco or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.51 | +51.0% | 20.7% |
| Celta Vigo or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.41 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| JEF United Chiba or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.94 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Aalesund or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.44 | +44.0% | 20.7% |
| Carrarese or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.37 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| NEC Nijmegen or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.65 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Oldham or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.44 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Atlético Ottawa | 1 | 0.0% | 1.65 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| SC Braga | 1 | 100.0% | 1.82 | +82.0% | 20.7% |
| Sheffield Utd or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.50 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Brighton or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.31 | +31.0% | 20.7% |
| Fulham or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.40 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1 | 0.0% | 1.47 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.21 | +21.0% | 20.7% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.34 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Marseille or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.28 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Palermo | 1 | 100.0% | 1.80 | +80.0% | 20.7% |
| Vissel Kobe or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.57 | +57.0% | 20.7% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 0.0% | 2.15 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlton or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 20.7% |
| Swansea or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.38 | +38.0% | 20.7% |
| Catanzaro or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.26 | +26.0% | 20.7% |
| 1. FC Köln or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.36 | +36.0% | 20.7% |
| GO Ahead Eagles or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 20.7% |
| Lorient or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.49 | +49.0% | 20.7% |
| Gremio or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.41 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Supra du Quebec or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.50 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Palmeiras or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.18 | +18.0% | 20.7% |
| Columbus Crew or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.30 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Urawa or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.47 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| KFUM Oslo or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.52 | +52.0% | 20.7% |
| Mantova or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.31 | +31.0% | 20.7% |
| Napoli | 1 | 100.0% | 1.87 | +87.0% | 20.7% |
| Fredrikstad or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 20.7% |
| Villarreal or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.32 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Heart Of Midlothian or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.34 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Groningen or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.21 | +21.0% | 20.7% |
| Juve Stabia or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.39 | +39.0% | 20.7% |
| FC Tokyo | 1 | 100.0% | 1.81 | +81.0% | 20.7% |
| Walsall or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.47 | +47.0% | 20.7% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.68 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Sheffield Wednesday or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.65 | +65.0% | 20.7% |
| Molde | 1 | 0.0% | 1.34 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Napoli or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.37 | +37.0% | 20.7% |
| Celtic or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.36 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.38 | +38.0% | 20.7% |
| Valladolid or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.50 | +50.0% | 20.7% |
| Valencia or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.54 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Porto or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.54 | +54.0% | 20.7% |
| Cavalry FC | 1 | 100.0% | 1.67 | +67.0% | 20.7% |
| Swindon Town | 1 | 0.0% | 2.12 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Tenerife | 1 | 0.0% | 1.97 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Burton Albion or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.98 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Grimsby | 1 | 0.0% | 1.70 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Cadiz or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.67 | +67.0% | 20.7% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 0.0% | 1.41 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 1 | 100.0% | 1.44 | +44.0% | 20.7% |
| Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 100.0% | 1.09 | +9.0% | 20.7% |
| Rangers | 1 | 100.0% | 1.17 | +17.0% | 20.7% |
| FC Porto | 1 | 100.0% | 1.33 | +33.0% | 20.7% |
| Inter | 1 | 100.0% | 1.16 | +16.0% | 20.7% |
| Real Madrid | 1 | 100.0% | 1.37 | +37.0% | 20.7% |
| Lille | 1 | 100.0% | 1.48 | +48.0% | 20.7% |
| Ajax | 1 | 0.0% | 1.34 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Barcelona | 1 | 100.0% | 1.08 | +8.0% | 20.7% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1 | 100.0% | 1.49 | +49.0% | 20.7% |
| Benfica | 1 | 100.0% | 1.25 | +25.0% | 20.7% |
| Forge | 1 | 100.0% | 1.40 | +40.0% | 20.7% |
Performance by odds band
| Odds band | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | ROI | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <2.0 | 231 | 65.4% | 1.47 | -5.3% | 59.0% |
| 2.0–2.5 | 24 | 37.5% | 2.19 | -17.5% | 21.2% |
Performance by league
| League | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | ROI | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 40 | 67.5% | 1.48 | -2.7% | 52.0% |
| Eliteserien | 28 | 60.7% | 1.50 | -13.0% | 42.4% |
| J1 League | 21 | 66.7% | 1.66 | +6.6% | 45.4% |
| Canadian Premier League | 19 | 68.4% | 1.54 | +3.1% | 46.0% |
| Eredivisie | 17 | 47.1% | 1.40 | -36.9% | 26.2% |
| League One | 14 | 64.3% | 1.64 | +1.0% | 38.8% |
| La Liga | 14 | 57.1% | 1.70 | -5.0% | 32.6% |
| Championship | 13 | 38.5% | 1.51 | -45.3% | 17.7% |
| Premier League | 12 | 75.0% | 1.48 | +5.2% | 46.8% |
| Ligue 1 | 12 | 83.3% | 1.45 | +21.8% | 55.2% |
| Premiership | 11 | 36.4% | 1.44 | -52.1% | 15.2% |
| League Two | 11 | 54.5% | 1.66 | -16.2% | 28.0% |
| Segunda División | 11 | 81.8% | 1.63 | +33.3% | 52.3% |
| Bundesliga | 11 | 45.5% | 1.56 | -29.5% | 21.3% |
| Primeira Liga | 10 | 70.0% | 1.59 | +9.8% | 39.7% |
| Serie B | 6 | 83.3% | 1.43 | +20.2% | 43.6% |
| Serie A | 5 | 80.0% | 1.40 | +11.6% | 37.6% |
Recent settled tips
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | Forge vs York United | Forge | 1.40 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Benfica vs Vitória SC | Benfica | 1.25 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Real Betis vs Osasuna | Real Betis | 1.60 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.49 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Barcelona vs Getafe | Barcelona | 1.08 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | Real Madrid | 1.37 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | 1.34 | Lost |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Lille vs Le Havre | Lille | 1.48 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Maritimo vs FC Porto | FC Porto | 1.33 | Won |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Inter vs Parma | Inter | 1.16 | Won |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK | Bodo/Glimt | 1.09 | Won |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Rangers vs Kilmarnock | Rangers | 1.17 | Won |
| 10 Oct 2026 | FC Augsburg vs Bayern München | Bayern München | 1.22 | Lost |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Arsenal vs Leeds | Arsenal | 1.44 | Won |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | 1.41 | Lost |
| 09 Oct 2026 | PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen | PSV Eindhoven | 1.27 | Won |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC | Castellón | 1.27 | Lost |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Las Palmas vs Valladolid | Las Palmas or Draw | 1.34 | Won |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Cadiz vs Leganes | Cadiz or Draw | 1.67 | Won |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Burton Albion vs Huddersfield | Burton Albion or Draw | 1.98 | Lost |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Grimsby vs Shrewsbury | Grimsby | 1.70 | Lost |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Crewe vs Bristol Rovers | Crewe or Draw | 1.65 | Won |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Albacete vs Eibar | Eibar or Draw | 1.50 | Won |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Leganes vs Castellón | Castellón | 2.35 | Won |
| 27 Sep 2026 | York United vs Pacific FC | York United or Draw | 1.39 | Lost |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC | Seattle Sounders or Draw | 1.38 | Won |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Charlotte vs Chicago Fire | Charlotte or Draw | 1.42 | Lost |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Tenerife vs Cadiz | Tenerife | 1.97 | Lost |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Swindon Town vs Accrington ST | Swindon Town | 2.12 | Lost |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec | Cavalry FC | 1.67 | Won |